Quick Tip: Get comfortable with probability when thinking about risk
Relying on heuristics alone can lead to systematic errors in judgement. To manage risks more formally, we need to get comfortable with probability.
We make thousands of risk-based decisions and judgments in our daily lives, often without much analysis or debate. We go with our gut, and in most situations, our judgement proves to be correct.
However, there are times when our quick, gut-based, judgement happens to be incorrect.
This is because, we use heuristics1, or rules of thumb, learned through years of experience to take quick action. As a result, each one of us has a different perspective on risk and approach to managing these risks.
Risk management of medical devices requires a more formal approach. It is a common practice in the industry to develop a cause-and-effect model for device failures that may lead to patient harm. This approach is useful but not sufficient to account for many unknowns in the complex operating environment.
There is a third, more recent approach to understanding and evaluating uncertainty. These methods are derived from probabilistic (or stochastic) modeling techniques such as Monte Carlo simulations, variance transmission, discrete event simulation or Bayesian methods. These methods help us to estimate the level of uncertainty due to factors beyond our control.
Medical devices are becoming more complex. Technology is evolving fast with rapid developments in artificial intelligence and machine learning. In this new environment, we have to develop new competencies for risk management to ensure patient safety.
It is time to start getting comfortable with probability!
Check out this article to learn more!
The term “heuristic” has the same root as the term “eureka”. It generally refers to a rule of thumb, that helps us find an adequate, though often imperfect, answers to difficult questions. Source: Thinking fast and slow by Daniel Kahneman